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The Russia-Ukraine conflict begins! These three points are very important for their impact on the packaging and printing industry!

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated again, and the situation "changed dramatically" overnight. Affected by this, the market plunged, and European and American stock markets fell sharply. The stock market once fell by 17%! The stock market has plummeted, while crude oil and gold have soared... In the past two years, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the economy has not subsided. It rained all night while the house was leaking. The escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted the economy like another gray rhinoceros.


Today, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the packaging and printing industry is a topic of concern to industry insiders.

Once the war breaks out, it will have a huge impact on the packaging and printing industry: 1. The price of petroleum and coal is likely to skyrocket, and energy costs will increase significantly; 2. As the conflict expands, our country cannot stay out of it, and the impact on exports is likely to be beyond imagination and even devastating. Sexual; 3. Russia exports 2.4 million tons of pulp every year, 90% of which is exported to China, which will lead to a sharp increase in China's pulp prices and trigger an increase in paper prices.


1. Energy prices may surge again

Last year’s wave of power rationing and production shutdowns are still fresh in everyone’s mind. As coal prices soared from 400 to 2,400 yuan/ton, thermal power plants that were unwilling to bear losses stopped supplying power, resulting in a nationwide blackout, which had a great impact on the manufacturing industry. impact.


Since Russia and Ukraine are important exporters of oil and coal, they have a great impact on overall energy prices. Russia is a major traditional oil and gas producer, with crude oil production in 2021 of about 10.5 million barrels per day. The peak of crude oil production before the epidemic once reached 11.45 million barrels per day, accounting for about 10% of production. In particular, our country imports a large amount of oil and coal from Russia. The expansion of the war has caused energy prices to soar, which has had a huge negative impact on our country's manufacturing industry, especially energy-intensive manufacturing.

2. Exports face indescribable variables

In response to the current escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the attitude of Europe and the United States is very clear. They will not sit back and watch Russia invade or even annex the entire Ukraine again. Judging from the statements of Europe and the United States, the situation in Russia and Ukraine will not ease in the short term, which will bring very negative downward risks to the economic trend.


"Tonight, we are praying for the people of Ukraine as they suffer an unprovoked attack by Russian forces. President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring catastrophic loss of life and human suffering," Biden said in a statement. Only Russia is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its allies and partners will respond with unity and decisiveness."

Seeing that Russia is annexing the Ukrainian Crimea, instigating the Eastern Ukraine region, and still launching attacks across Ukraine, I believe that Russia’s mortal enemies such as Lithuania and Poland will feel sad. And the NATO countries headed by the United States are launching attacks on Russia. sanctions, even joining the fighting group. Facing such a complex environment, it is difficult for our country to remain neutral. It can be inferred from this that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will cause major disruption to our country's exports to the United States and Europe. Possible scenarios include: Poland and Lithuania blocking the China-Europe railway; Europe and the United States launching trade sanctions against my country.

As European and American countries have successively relaxed epidemic control, the possibility of orders returning to China has decreased. In addition, the European and American economies are already sluggish and foreign trade demand is weak. Under normal circumstances, exports in 2022 will return to the level of 2018. The war between Russia and Ukraine will be a gray rhino incident, which will have an immeasurable impact on my country's exports. Packaging and printing companies involved in foreign trade exports should carefully evaluate this big risk.

3. The possibility of a sharp rise in base paper prices increases

In recent years, economic and trade exchanges between my country and Russia have continued to expand. In addition to importing large amounts of Russian oil and Russian coal, the vast majority of Russia's exported pulp is also sold to our country.


On January 11, according to the Russian "Forestry" magazine, Russia's largest pulp and paper company IIim Group will increase the export volume of its products to China to 2.4 million tons in 2024. It is reported that the products of Ilim Group are used in more than 500 factories in more than 20 regions in China. In recent years, Ilim has been expanding its cooperative relationships with Chinese companies and is committed to expanding exports to China. In 2020, Ilim's exports to China reached a record high of 1.66 million tons, including 170,000 tons of cardboard. Last year, China's total pulp imports reached 13.5 million tons, of which Ilim Group accounted for 1.66 million tons, accounting for 12.3%.

The five countries with large pulp export volumes are Brazil (14.306 million tons), Canada (905.3 tons), the United States (6.866 million tons), Chile (4.594 million tons), and Finland (4.274 million tons). Other countries with large export volumes There are Indonesia, Sweden, Uruguay, Russia, and the Netherlands. The total export volume of the above 10 countries was the same as in 2018. Among these countries, the vast majority of Russian pulp is exported to China.

In July 2020, the price of ILIM pulp in Russia suddenly soared by 800 yuan/ton, which finally led to the painful experience of my country's white cardboard soaring. Once Russia raises prices, Brazil and other countries take the opportunity to shear sheep. As a pulp importing country, my country To withstand severe inflation, paper prices will not be far away from skyrocketing again.

Under the epidemic, everyone is exhausted, both in the physical industry and as individuals. Once my country is involved in this conflict, the impact on the economy in the short term may be huge. Bosses of packaging and printing companies need to make plans to avoid a fatal impact on the company. At the same time, facing sudden geopolitical crises also tests the wisdom of major countries.